A few alternative thoughts, just for fun but a different approach.
IMHO the mass market will decide if their is a 'winner' or not, not the small group who populate the various AV forums. Whoever can deliver HD movies in the most convenient manner at the lowest price will have the biggest advantage.
During the VHS/Betamax war we had a third format in Europe from Phillips, V2000, which was far superior in terms of picture quality and convenience (the cassette was similar to an audio cassette in that you could turn it upside down and use both sides). I don't know if this was ever launched in the US? In the end VHS, the poorest format in terms of performance, won. As an enthusiast I wanted the V2000 system to win, it gave me a better picture and was more convenient.
So this time around I don't really care who wins, I can get HD movies via satellite or, if I'm really desperate, from cable. No investment in media or hardware that could become obsolete in the near future.
So unless their is a clear winner I'll sit tight - isn't this how the mass market will behave?
Unless one of the camps come up with a revolutionary marketing approach to break the log jam then neither format will reach the critical mass needed to succeed. What I would do is something like a rental deal with a media provider like Netflix/Blockbuster/Hollywood, for example a player and 4 movies a month for a 2 year $40month agreement. The average guy on the street has a low entry cost, doesn't care about the format and is guranteed to get accesss to movies. But just a second, can't I get this from cable/sat? Yes I can, but I could also go out and buy the movies I want to own and what happens = critical mass.
If the Blu-Ray or HD-DVD camps want to offer me a job - please PM me via this site
