I think HD-DVD is dying.
And, I was wrong. I figured that Blu-Ray would win only if they could figure out how to slash prices of the players to be comparable (or better) than HD-DVD player prices (i.e. ~$200 or less). So, how did Blu win without the cheap player?
I'll give some credit to the Sony marketing machine. They really are good at marketing. Over the past month, I've received two direct mailers - one about PS3 and one about "HDNA" that are quite impressive.
But, I think the main "problem" is that the studios don't count rentals. I would not be surprised if more HD-DVDs are rented than Blu-Ray simply because I think the HD-DVD demographic is more frugal than the Blu-Ray demographic. Thus, HD-DVD folks rent while Blu-Ray folks buy. (Massive generalization, I know, but this is the web and so I'm allowed to speculate all I want.
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I also think that same Blu demographic that bought PS3s to play games are going to stores to buy a game but come home with a Blu Ray disc because there are no games to buy.
Personally, I would like to see services like VuDu just kick it into gear and offer lots of HD offerings. Then I could justify getting a VuDu box. "Look, Hon. You just download movies and go! Neat, huh?"
Right now, I can't justify replacing (or adding to) my 6 month old HD-DVD player.
"Look Hon! We have another DVD player!" Yeah, that just won't fly.
Mitch