Blu-ray Declaring Victory

[Woochifer]

I know it's old news because this declaration of victory by the Blu-ray Association occurred at CES a couple of months ago, but no one else has yet brought this topic up (at least in this folder)! When I first read about it, I thought the BDA was just blowing smoke and making an incredibly arrogant proclamation that could very well put a lot of egg of their collective faces in due time. But, the sales data that has come out in the ensuing weeks does absolutely nothing to contradict their assertion.

Blu-ray has had the advantage with major studio support and hardware manufacturer support for a while now. But, it seems that despite its less-than-stellar launch, the PS3 has vaulted Blu-ray solidly into the lead and Blu-ray's broader studio and hardware support is now poised to extend that lead as 2007 goes on.

Before the PS3 debuted, HD-DVD was consistently outselling Blu-ray by a wide margin. But, once the PS3 launched, Blu-ray disc sales jumped by 700% and took the lead in December (excluding freebies). The Nielson Videoscan numbers show Blu-ray outselling HD-DVD by more than 2-to-1 so far in 2007, and just last week, Blu-ray took the lead in overall disc sales, despite a more than six month headstart for HD-DVD.

On the hardware side, HD-DVD and Blu-ray sold a nearly equal number of standalone players last year, which does not include gaming console sales. HD-DVD had the advantage of a headstart, but Blu-ray had more manufacturers producing and marketing players. And then you have the PS3, which sold about 2 million units worldwide -- more than 4x the combined total HD-DVD and Blu-ray player sales. Even if a minority of PS3 owners buy Blu-ray discs, that's still a very large installed user base (a survey of 10,000 PS3 owners indicates that 80% of them intend to purchase Blu-ray discs). My understanding is that the Xbox 360 HD-DVD add-on has sold about 100,000 units. A respectable number, but far from what's needed to negate the sales bump that the PS3 created. If Microsoft wants to impact the market, they'll need to integrate the HD-DVD drive into the Xbox 360.

Moreover, the release slate for 2007 looks more top-heavy with Blu-ray exclusives. Among the major studios, Universal supports HD-DVD exclusively, while Fox, Disney, Sony, and MGM (whose distribution is split between Fox and Sony) support Blu-ray exclusively. Warner and Paramount are neutral. Supposedly, among last year's top 20 DVD titles, 19 of them are out or will come out on Blu-ray, while 4 of them are due out on HD-DVD. Furthermore, 16 of these releases are Blu-ray exclusives, while only 1 of last year's top titles is a HD-DVD exclusive.

Prior to these sales numbers, I thought that HD-DVD had enough momentum to at least force a draw in the format war by steering the market towards dual-format discs (which Warner has now developed in its Total HD disc format) and dual-format players (which LG has already come out with, and Samsung is purportedly developing). The market seemed headed in that direction with the basic video decoders used in players for both formats capable of decoding signals from both HD-DVD and Blu-ray drives. But, these latest numbers indicate that Blu-ray very well could win the format war outright, and a draw might be the optimistic best case scenario for HD-DVD.

Right now, a lot of things have to happen for HD-DVD to remain competitive, whereas Blu-ray will win the format war if Universal simply declares itself neutral.

Bill Hunt of the Digital Bits has been following this issue for some time, and he recently posted a couple of commentaries about the current state of the market that IMO are spot on. A lot of the responses that I've seen in other forums seem to reflect what people would like to see happen, rather than objectively looking at how the market structure has stacked up in favor of Blu-ray. Hunt lays out a very persuasive case for why Blu-ray is likely to win the format war, and why it's best that one format emerge as the clear victor in short order. Like Hunt, I could care less which HD disc format wins, but I've come over to thinking that the best thing for the market right now is that one HD disc format emerge as a clear winner. And as things are right now, I don't see how HD-DVD can possibly win the format war outright. Too many of Blu-ray's advantages have to flip-flop, and do so in a hurry, in order for HD-DVD to gain an advantage.

Here's the link to Bill Hunt's commentaries ...

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/mytwoc...ml#commonsense

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/mytwoc...33.html#uniend

[MACCA350]

If blu-ray wins we'll be locked into region control and have players with various interactivity and audio levels(Profile 1.0, 1.1, 2.0(BDLive), 3(Audio Only) etc.

At least with HD DVD any player you buy supports everything including all interactivity and internet capability.

Anyway I give up on both ......bring on the HVD(3.9TB), apparently Maxell are releasing the 300GB HVD this year to kick things off

cheers

[Sir Terrence]

MACCA350 wrote:

If blu-ray wins we'll be locked into region control and have players with various interactivity and audio levels(Profile 1.0, 1.1, 2.0(BDLive), 3(Audio Only) etc.

At least with HD DVD any player you buy supports everything including all interactivity and internet capability.

Anyway I give up on both ......bring on the HVD(3.9TB), apparently Maxell are releasing the 300GB HVD this year to kick things off

cheers

I think rather than sweeping away both formats and choosing a third, we need to establish a SINGLE format for the sake of clarity. Bringing another controversial format into the mix is both silly, and from a business stand point, a huge mistake.

What the HD DVD doesn't support is some of the basic functions of a standard DVD player. Resume from pause when the player is turned off, or you change inputs doesn't exist with HD DVD, but does with DVD. Three out of the four models Toshiba has out do not support Dts HD lossless master audio. All of the players are glitchy including their top of the line X2.

I have personally decided that I will not buy a second Toshiba player. The fact that the second generation players are just a buggy as the first is not blowing my pant legs very much. Secondly, after buying about 40 titles, I have found nothing else left to buy, and a release schedule that has only four HD DVD I would purchase within the next six months. This is very dissapointing to me, but is the face of reality.

[bobgpsr]

Sir Terrence wrote:

What the HD DVD doesn't support is some of the basic functions of a standard DVD player. Resume from pause when the player is turned off, or you change inputs doesn't exist with HD DVD, but does with DVD. Three out of the four models Toshiba has out do not support Dts HD lossless master audio.

1. Resume can work if the HD DVD is authored with it enabled correctly. I have two Studio Canal discs that can do the resume function. Not a HD DVD format problem. The authoring houses just have to enable it when they author a HD DVD.

2. No player in either BD or HD DVD format yet has dts-HD Master Audio decoding running yet. Just promises. They all can extract the core legacy 5.1 dts out of dts-HD MA.

3. My XA1 and XA2 are not "glitchy". Just lucky I guess. It does seem like 1/3 of the first gen players had problems. Most that are repaired seem to work OK after the drive is replaced. So far it looks like the new 1.3 firmware has fixed many user's complaints about glitches in the gen 2 players. Reports are another firmware update is coming in three weeks to address a reviewer's complaints about minor stutter in a couple of places on a few discs with the XA2 only.

4. Titles are really where people differ as to tastes. It looks like the floodgates turn on for HD DVD on March 27th. No movies from either BD or HD DVD this release Tuesday, but BD has some coming out on the 13th and 20th.

[Sir Terrence]

bobgpsr wrote:

1. Resume can work if the HD DVD is authored with it enabled correctly. I have two Studio Canal discs that can do the resume function. Not a HD DVD format problem. The authoring houses just have to enable it when they author a HD DVD.

Bob, its a format problem IMO. If Toshiba cannot work with the authoring houses to get this corrected, then its a problem with the format. The hardware can support it, but its not utilized and that's a format problem.

2. No player in either BD or HD DVD format yet has dts-HD Master Audio decoding running yet. Just promises. They all can extract the core legacy 5.1 dts out of dts-HD MA.

This is true. However only the XA2 can support it out of all of the players Toshiba has released. So only if you spend $1,000 will you have this option in the future, or you can spend $499 or $599 and have that same option on Blu-ray. Or you could have fully uncompressed 5.1 audio only found on blu-ray. The point I am trying to illustrate here is that HD DVD currently only supports one lossless codec over all its players, and they don't use it very often. You can find so many blu-ray titles with raw uncompressed 5.1 PCM that its not even funny. So does blu-ray really need any of these codecs? My answer is, no. Does HD DVD? Without a doubt yes. Lossy just does not cut it any more.

3. My XA1 and XA2 are not "glitchy". Just lucky I guess. It does seem like 1/3 of the first gen players had problems. Most that are repaired seem to work OK after the drive is replaced. So far it looks like the new 1.3 firmware has fixed many user's complaints about glitches in the gen 2 players. Reports are another firmware update is coming in three weeks to address a reviewer's complaints about minor stutter in a couple of places on a few discs with the XA2 only.

A little more than half of the first gen players had issues. Hence the firmware update, or which only one has been issued. So first gen owners are basically stuck with what they have good or bad. My A1 has glitches from time to time, but nothing repeateable. However this is my third player. The first two were so glitchy that I just couldn't deal with them. The one persistant problem that bothers me is the player comes to a stop when you switch away from the HDMI to another imput and starts the movie over when you go back to the HDMI input. Terribly annoying problem.

Toshiba seems to be supporting the second gen players much better than the first, which leaves a VERY bad taste in my mouth. Wasn't it the first gen buyers that put HD DVD on the map?

After reading the review of the XA2, I am not filled with hope. You have LFE issues when using the analog outs. Video studdering on certain DVD and HD DVD(you might not see it, but it is there). If you use the digital outs(if you do not have analog inputs on your reciever) you get a transcoded DD at 640kbps instead of Dts at 1.5mbps. There is the lip syncing issues and the beat goes on. You are a lucky man if you don't experience this, but you are also a rarity as well.

4. Titles are really where people differ as to tastes. It looks like the floodgates turn on for HD DVD on March 27th. No movies from either BD or HD DVD this release Tuesday, but BD has some coming out on the 13th and 20th.

I looked at the release schedule up until June. I found only four titles that I would purchase in that time period. For me(and only for me) that is pretty pitiful out of 33 titles released. When I compare that to the more than thirteen titles that I would purchase on blu-ray in this same time period I am not filled with hope for HD DVD at least in my case. Don't get me wrong, I love my players upconversion process very much, and if I bought the player for that alone, it was worth the money. I have over 1600 DVD's that could benefit from this player. However the lack of widespread studio support amoung the majors is hurting this format dearly.

[bobgpsr]

Just some short responses. I think you and I are looking out different colored glasses and seeing the glass half full or half empty.

1. Microsoft needs to convince/teach the rest of the studios/authoring houses to use the HDi resume.

2. Yes, dts-HD MA was promised in the future for the XA2 -- but only by a dealer. Not sure about the upcoming A20, but I think it is said that that one will have it also. A lot of the Studio Canal HD DVDs use dts-HD MA. I don't think that anybody can be sure that the A2, XA1 and A1 will never get dts-HD MA we will see. And you are right -- without the luxury of 50 GB it is hard to fit 16bit/48kHz 5.1 linear PCM on a title. IMHO it was a mistake and compromised picture quality on the 25 GB BD titles that used PCM. But I really want 20bit/48kHz lossless and in 7.1 channels. For HD DVD to do that for 4 hour LOTR it will take the proposed TL51/1.5x of HD DVD. BD50 can do it using the right codecs like AVC and dts-HD MA for instance.

3. We are going to have to differ on the % of problems with the gen 1 units. The polls/surveys that I trust show around 30%. YMMV in what you believe.
Toshiba is supposed to come out with a firmware update for the gen 1 units by the end of this week. We'll see. Version 2.1? It will be the the fourth update (1.0 original, then 1.2, followed by 1.4, then 2.0 with 5.1 TrueHD, and now hopefully this week 2.1).
Toshiba is already on the second update to gen 2 HD-A2 with (1.0, 1.2 then 1.3). It appears that there will be at least two more updates to the XA2 (currently on its first update to 1.3 from 1.0 original). The next XA2 update is supposed to fix the residual video stutter issues and the low analog LFE. Followed by a scheduled update in July to enable 1080p24 output on HDMI.

4. Like I said before, YMMV. I have over 40 HD DVD's. Some are loaned out to my adult kids.

Happy Trails!

[Sir Terrence]

bobgpsr wrote:

Just some short responses. I think you and I are looking out different colored glasses and seeing the glass half full or half empty.

1. Microsoft needs to convince/teach the rest of the studios/authoring houses to use the HDi resume.

2. Yes, dts-HD MA was promised in the future for the XA2 -- but only by a dealer. Not sure about the upcoming A20, but I think it is said that that one will have it also. A lot of the Studio Canal HD DVDs use dts-HD MA. I don't think that anybody can be sure that the A2, XA1 and A1 will never get dts-HD MA we will see. And you are right -- without the luxury of 50 GB it is hard to fit 16bit/48kHz 5.1 linear PCM on a title. IMHO it was a mistake and compromised picture quality on the 25 GB BD titles that used PCM. But I really want 20bit/48kHz lossless and in 7.1 channels. For HD DVD to do that for 4 hour LOTR it will take the proposed TL51/1.5x of HD DVD. BD50 can do it using the right codecs like AVC and dts-HD MA for instance.

3. We are going to have to differ on the % of problems with the gen 1 units. The polls/surveys that I trust show around 30%. YMMV in what you believe.
Toshiba is supposed to come out with a firmware update for the gen 1 units by the end of this week. We'll see. Version 2.1? It will be the the fourth update (1.0 original, then 1.2, followed by 1.4, then 2.0 with 5.1 TrueHD, and now hopefully this week 2.1).
Toshiba is already on the second update to gen 2 HD-A2 with (1.0, 1.2 then 1.3). It appears that there will be at least two more updates to the XA2 (currently on its first update to 1.3 from 1.0 original). The next XA2 update is supposed to fix the residual video stutter issues and the low analog LFE. Followed by a scheduled update in July to enable 1080p24 output on HDMI.

4. Like I said before, YMMV. I have over 40 HD DVD's. Some are loaned out to my adult kids.

Happy Trails!

We have different information concerning the number of problems. Since I got my information from a closer source than just polls and surveys, I can solidly rely on what they told me. They have no reason to lie, and they never have.

[Woochifer]

bobgpsr wrote:

4. Titles are really where people differ as to tastes. It looks like the floodgates turn on for HD DVD on March 27th. No movies from either BD or HD DVD this release Tuesday, but BD has some coming out on the 13th and 20th.

You're right that people tend to prioritize titles differently, but Blu-ray simply has more of them in the pipeline. And like it or not, it's new releases that drive sales and create buzz. In that respect, Blu-ray has a huge advantage, since Universal is the only major studio exclusively supporting HD-DVD. And last year was a bad year for Universal, and a banner year for Sony, Disney, and Fox who support Blu-ray exclusively.

Here's a link to last year's box office chart, and you'll see that 12 of the top 20 movies are tied to the three Blu-ray exclusive major studios, while Universal had only 1 movie in last year's top 20, The Break Up and it has already come out on HD-DVD.

Next week, Casino Royale (last year's #6 box office hit) will come out concurrently with the DVD version as a Blu-ray exclusive. Pursuit of Happyness (last year's #10 movie) gets its concurrent Blu-ray release two weeks thereafter. Next month, Night at the Museum (#3 in last year's box office) also gets a concurrent release as a Blu-ray exclusive. And in June, last year's top two movies, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest and Cars come out on Blu-ray. That's a lot of market push that HD-DVD cannot answer.

The biggest HD-DVD titles coming out on March 27 (Happy Feet and March of the Penguins) will also simultaneously come out on Blu-ray.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/

Although it's entirely plausible that Universal will recover and have a great year at the box office, Blu-ray's lead in hardware sales, year-to-date disc sales, and disc sales since inception, will continue to increase in the meantime. By the time Universal's movie slate for 2007 has an impact on the HD disc sales, Blu-ray's lead might be firmly entrenched.

[Sonnie]

Does Blu-ray have a player out yet that is good to go for less than $1000? From what I understand they only have one player that up to par and it's expensive.... the Pioneer maybe?

As soon as Blu-ray gets jiggy with their players at a reasonable price, I'm in. They have quite a few titles I would like, but not as many as I already have with HD-DVD. As far as HD-DVD players... I've not had any problems out of either of my units. They've worked as advertised and SD-DVD is the bomb!

[MACCA350]

OK, so here is how they pan out for the coming 3 months.

Blu-ray =20
HD-DVD =26

March

Blu-ray(9)
Casino Royale
Layer Cake
Eragon
Holiday, The
Rocky Balboa
Happy Feet
March Of The Penguins
Pursuit of Happyness, The
Relentless Enemies

HD-DVD(4)
Children of Men
Happy Feet
March Of The Penguins
Relentless Enemies

April

Blu-ray(8)
Volver
Dog Day Afternoon
Scanner Darkly
Dirty Dozen
Enter the Dragon
Planet Earth: The Complete Collection
Queen, The
Secret Window

HD-DVD(8)
Good Shepherd, The
Dog Day Afternoon
Scanner Darkly
Game
Jerk
Eternal Sunshine Of The Spotless Mind
Nutty Professor
Planet Earth: The Complete Collection

May

Blu-ray(3)
Dreamgirls
Donnie Brasco
Flags of Our Fathers

HD-DVD(14)
Alpha Dog
Dreamgirls
Hitcher, The
40-Year-Old Virgin
Flags of Our Fathers
Hurricane
Skeleton Key
Smokey And The Bandit
Big Lebowski, The
Dragonheart
Frighteners
Lost In Translation
Midnight Run
River

Reference

Things may change, but there you have it.

cheers

[Sonnie]

Hmmm... none of those really float my boat...

[Woochifer]

MACCA350 wrote:

OK, so here is how they pan out for the coming 3 months.

Blu-ray =20
HD-DVD =26

Reference

Things may change, but there you have it.

cheers

By High Def Digest's count it comes out to

Blu-ray: 45
HD-DVD: 35

As mentioned earlier, Blu-ray will have last year's #1, #3, #9, and #10 box office performers coming out over the next three months, along with #2 Cars coming out in June, with most of these titles coming out concurrently with the DVD. Contrastly, the highest ranking HD-DVD exclusive that will come out during this period is The Good Shepherd, which ranked #50 in last year's domestic box office.

Given this release schedule, I don't think it's a stretch to say that Blu-ray's current 2-to-1 sales advantage will widen in the next few months.

[Sonnie]

So does anyone know the answer to post #9 ...

[bobgpsr]

Sonnie wrote:

So does anyone know the answer to post #9 ...

$599 player from Sony in June from some announcement a couple weeks back. Question as to what lossless audio codecs it will have (none?) but IIRC it will have DD+ along with legacy DD and dts. Not sure about BD J live/video (latest BD Java with PiP, etc).

I think Samsung announced a $799 machine that is to be comming (May or June?). It is supposed to have the same Reon video processing that the Toshiba HD-XA2 has.

Edit: Newer posts elsewhere say the new Samsung machine is delayed (fall?) or may never come out -- instead a 3d gen model may late in the year.

[MACCA350]

It's looking more and more likely that Blu-ray will win this stupid war.

I personally won't be buying into it until there is a player that does everything that the format can do, and at present thats none of them

My list of player requirements
1) It needs to support all the audio codec's fully
2) Have 7.1 analogue outputs as well as HDMI 1.3
3) Support ALL forms of interactivity (this is a big one and what a mess that is )
4) Output the raw 1080p/24 data direct from the disc w/o any conversions within the player(IIRC current 1080p/24 output players actually convert to 1080i/60 then back to 1080p24 before it's spit out of the player )
5) Be region free or at least have a region free crack for both DVD and Blu-ray(I'm from Australia, so no legal ** please )
6) And all of this for under AU$1000(Panasonic DMP-BD10 RRP AU$2749:raped: )

So as you can see I'll be waiting for a while yet and seriously No's1-5 should have been the players minimum support from the start, get your act together guys you've had over 5 years to sort this out

*rant over.....now back to our regular programming*

cheers