HD DVD Staying Power

[MrPorterhouse]

Well, it seems as the year closes out, HD DVD has been outsold in disc sales for every single week in 2007, with some weeks being quite heavily Blu favored. Taking a look forward at disc releases for Q1 2008, I don't see any titles that are going to break that trend, with Blu likely to retain the disc sales advantage. Ignoring the hardware factor(pricing, features, value, etc...), does HD DVD have the staying power from a software standpoint to break the Blu trend?

It seems as if the approach by Toshiba to play the price game with their hardware has been dramatically effective. However, as Blu-ray hardware comes down to an even level and the Blu-ray profiles become full spec, it seems as if the hardware playing field will be tipped towards Blu due to the increased number of manufacturers. How does this factor into things as we move forward? Does having a greater number of electronics manufacturers really offer benefits? I would tend to think so due to competition not only between formats, but also with each other.

Of course, the really big question is, Where do the profits lie for the Big Guys involved? Who is making money and where does the Pot o Gold reside?

[tonyvdb]

HD DVD has better minimum audio standards than BluRay but it seems that BluRay has far more titles available and with Disney being one of the main supporters of BluRay I wonder how effective HD DVD will be over the long hall. It really doesn't matter to me who wins as I have both players but there are many who wont even buy into a format until there is a clear winner. The people in my age bracket remember the war between Beta (Sony) and VHS (JVC) and most do not want a repeat of this again.

[Sonnie]

They can war all they want as far as I'm concerned. Once I get my Samsung dual format player in here, it won't matter. I'll buy whatever and have something to play either on.

One thing to think about though... it appears Disney may start offering both formats. Other studios may follow their lead.

[SteveCallas]

My take on it is that those who spent $400+ on a Blue Ray player were more inclined to spend the higher asking prices for blue ray discs as opposed to sd dvd. With HD DVD being more budget orientated, the $30-$35 asking price for hd dvds is hard to swallow for some owners (at least it is for me ), and so sd dvds will still be purchased for a while. When/if the prices of hd dvds start coming down, the more budget orientated hd dvd players will sell even more and the software sales will grow.

[MrPorterhouse]

SteveCallas wrote:

My take on it is that those who spent $400+ on a Blue Ray player were more inclined to spend the higher asking prices for blue ray discs as opposed to sd dvd. With HD DVD being more budget orientated, the $30-$35 asking price for hd dvds is hard to swallow for some owners (at least it is for me ), and so sd dvds will still be purchased for a while. When/if the prices of hd dvds start coming down, the more budget orientated hd dvd players will sell even more and the software sales will grow.

That's an excellent point. Media prices do need to come down. The fastest way for this to happen is for a unified high def format so we can start to see better volume pricing. Competition between formats is great to get the hardware prices down, but it is not helping bring media prices down, in fact, it's prolonging things.

[Sonnie]

I know Amazon is not the tell all of all when it comes to DVD sales, but is interesting to note that SD-DVD is atop their bestseller list, HD-DVD comes in second, Blu-ray third.

[MrPorterhouse]

Amazon has been tried to be understood for some time on AVS and their prediction threads. Basically, the conclusion is that Amazon does not correlate with actual disc sales trends. When Amazon runs a Blu-ray promo, the Amazon data shifts Blu. When Amazon runs a HD DVD promo, the data shifts HD DVD. Blu-ray has been extremely consistent week after week with about a 2:1 advantage when you combine all retail sales data. Its fun to watch the Amazon numbers in real time, but they just don't mean that much.

[wbassett]

First let me reiterate that I am format neutral so I am not picking favorites or putting either format down.

Okay with the disclaimer out of the way...

I've seen some people on various forums talk about the Paramount deal and try to say HD DVD did something underhanded. That was business and no different than Bluray signing up studios at the beginning, and then of course there are the Sony owned studios...

Both sides have conducted 'business' but where HD DVD has the battle is at the store front. Bluray dominates at almost every store I go to that carries High Def movies and stores do take money for premium displays, end-caps, more shelf space and so on. Target announced they would become Bluray exclusive, but after the explosion of HD DVD sales third and fourth quarter 2007 they rethought that and not only still carry HD DVD, but they expanded the shelf space. Still, Bluray shelf space is almost double what HD DVD has. Not because there are more movies, but because a financial deal was made. When is the last time anyone has walked into a Sams Club and seen an HD DVD display right up at the front of the store? Never. Sams is Bluray exclusive but that doesn't mean there is just one format, just that they signed a deal to carry one format. Actually, when has anyone walked into any store and seen an HD DVD display up front and prominant?

Block Buster also prematurely said they would be BD exclusive and when I called their main office back in October they stated they would definitely be carrying both formats.

The reason is obvious, player sales. Companies do accept financial deals for space, but that isn't loyalty and if they see HD DVD growing they will want to have a piece of that too.

Store personnel education is also a factor. Fact is most employees don't really know the difference. I have listened to countless conversations where the store staff was saying incorrect information about both formats, right down to a Walmart employee telling someone they didn't want HD DVD because it was developed by solely by Microsoft. Then other conversations where the customer said "I don't understand, I want HD and HD DVD is High Def right? What is Bluray? Can I play Bluray in my regular player?"

So the bottom line is the general public doesn't understand the two formats, and neither do store staff in most cases.

What does all that have to do with sales? Perception. People see more Bluray than HD DVD on the shelves, store staff gives out bad information... and the perception is Bluray is clearly winning. Right now it's a stalemate on many levels though. There are 'waves' where one side is riding the top of the wave, but the next month the other format finds a higher wave and rides that... Bluray may have more sales of discs, but that gap is closing and a stalemate is close at hand.

BD Profiles- Some people that shelled out hundreds of dollars on first gen players will never be able to get to the final Bluray profile, while HD DVD is a more robust and developed format. Disc size is smaller, but compression is better and doesn't need as much space... again another marketing gimmick and perception.

Prices- HD DVD owns the front line of the war when it comes to unit prices, but really only for entry level units and those are 1080i. We on the forums know there is an imperceivable difference between 1080i and 1080p, and I can say with first hand experience with a good 1080p HDTV, you won't see a difference. It boils down to how well the disc was mastered and that applies to both formats. Sony has clearly won this front line by convincing people that 1080p is dramatically superior, and Toshiba dropped the ball by not making the A3 1080p if for no other reason than public perception...

Sony will win the console war in my opinion though. Including a BD player built into the PS3 allows them to put out games that are native Bluray format without the need to buy anything additional, therefore in the long run bigger and better games... but this isn't about game consoles, it's about High Def players. Where Sony messed up in my opinion is they should have made the PS3 look like a piece of HT gear and sold it with a remote, and this is the most important thing- marketed it as a Bluray Player first and foremost and one that just happens to be able to play games too. It is also one of the few players that will make it to the final BD profile, just getting Profile 1.1 this month. They cut their own throat by actually 'competing' with themself. When the PS3 was first launched it was crippled in the sense it didn't upconvert Standard Definition DVDs (it does now though). They did that because why would anyone want to buy their flagship BD player at almost twice the price but not nearly as good of a player in both quality and features- not to mention far more upgradeable.

Content- This is probably the biggest mis-perception of them all. That is that Bluray has far more movie content than HD DVD and that is not really the case. Only in stores other than Best Buy does Bluray dominate and look like all the movies are on BD. What is more important is what type of movies does a person like?

I've outlined this before and that is for people to take some time and look through both formats and make a 'wish list' of what movies are exclusive to each format. When I looked at the full list for both formats, Bluray did have a slight edge in total titles, but it really wasn't as big as people say or think. More important though is that the movies that I personally like are more HD DVD titles. So for me it wouldn't matter if BD had three times the titles, if I personally don't like them, then volume means nothing to me when it comes to enjoying a movie.

I know this was lengthy. I love both of my players dearly but for different reasons. Most of my collection is HD DVD, but that's because they have the titles I personally like and want. My PS3 is an outstanding Bluray player and also doubles as a media server and complete entertainment system. Both upconvert exceptionally well, but I give a slight edge to the PS3 over the A2, and the PS3 has played everything thrown at it, even DVD+/-R discs that the A2 wouldn't play.

So disc sales numbers may be slightly more for Bluray, but HD DVD isn't down for the count and people have to remember that even as BD lowers prices, HD DVD counters with even lower prices, and that equates to more HD DVD disc sales. This is actually a win/win for us consumers. If there weren't two formats, we'd probably still be looking at $700-800 BD player prices.

HD DVD needs to start marketing and spending some of the money from those record 3rd and 4th quarter player sales. Until they do that, perception will be Bluray is superior and the clear winner, at least to the general public.

[wbassett]

Sorry about the length of the last post, in order to try to show both sides it does take some time and space.

wbassett wrote:

I've outlined this before and that is for people to take some time and look through both formats and make a 'wish list' of what movies are exclusive to each format. When I looked at the full list for both formats, Bluray did have a slight edge in total titles, but it really wasn't as big as people say or think. More important though is that the movies that I personally like are more HD DVD titles. So for me it wouldn't matter if BD had three times the titles, if I personally don't like them, then volume means nothing to me when it comes to enjoying a movie.

This post will be shorter but I did want to follow up on that with what I said before.

Some movies are format exclusive, we all know that. I was actually surprised when I went through a list of all HD DVD content and all Bluray content. When you break things down like this it makes it much clearer which format a person will enjoy the best.

There were a total of 87 high definition movies on my 'wish list'. I say wish list because after making that list I went through the tier ratings and some had pretty bad transfers and the general comments were they did not look any better than an up-converted SDVD copy of the same movie, so ultimately those movies were removed from the 'list'.

I found that there were 23 movies that I really liked that are HD DVD exclusive, while there were only 14 that were Bluray exclusive. Then there were 19 that are on both formats. The rest are movies that haven't come out yet and some of the studios in that list have done both formats, so those are a wait and see situation.

So I looked at the exclusives as well as the 19 that are in both formats and that made 42 movies I love and would be able to watch on an HD DVD player, and Bluray came out to 33 movies. It wasn't a blowout, but HD DVD did have the edge. For some people this list may be totally reversed and for what they like BD may have a bigger list, so they should go with a Bluray player then.

Personally I'm surprised more people don't do this before making their decision. Both have outstanding picture quality from what I have seen, yes there is a price difference between them... but in the end isn't the real factor what movies a person likes? I'm format neutral as I mentioned, but before anyone takes the plunge, they should at least go through the movie lists of what's out there like I mention and then make their decision on a player.

Each side wants us to think they are clearly winning, but it really is a stalemate and both formats are going to be around until something ends up replacing them. Hopefully it won't be the inferior downloadable content concept- like how mp3 is starting to replace CDs even though CDs are superior sound than most mp3s. I think most people will be happy with either format as long as they take an honest look at what type of movies they like, and then upconvert the SDVD version of anything unavailable on that format.

I know some of you out there are looking forward to the next gen dual format players getting ready to come out, I won't say don't buy them if that's truly what you want. I will be following Marshall's lead and be building a an HTPC that plays both formats as well as acts as a DVR and the price list right now is an estimated cool $1200. That's a bit much for most people, and building an HTPC isn't something the masses would want to do, but for us Shackersters and forum savvy people, it's something you may want to step back and consider. I have three players, two HD DVD players and one Bluray player but if I could have one unit that plays both and acts as a media center... well I don't need to tell anyone what I would opt for!

[wbassett]

MrPorterhouse wrote:

Amazon has been tried to be understood for some time on AVS and their prediction threads. Basically, the conclusion is that Amazon does not correlate with actual disc sales trends. When Amazon runs a Blu-ray promo, the Amazon data shifts Blu. When Amazon runs a HD DVD promo, the data shifts HD DVD. Blu-ray has been extremely consistent week after week with about a 2:1 advantage when you combine all retail sales data. Its fun to watch the Amazon numbers in real time, but they just don't mean that much.

One thing Amazon did that I don't like is they changed the layout when it comes to viewing the formats. It used to be you could select either HD DVD or BD and at the top it would tell you the number of titles available. This number did include 'unreleased' titles though so it would fluctuate from week to week as titles were actually released.

Now Amazon has a 'Bluray' landing page that makes it a bit more difficult to see the number count. This happened about the time of the Paramount deal so to me it was a Sony deal to not only make Bluray look more appealing, but harder to see how many titles were on each format. Prior to that I was watching the list on a weekly basis and HD DVD titles were starting to catch up to Bluray. Right before this change it was as slim as a 50 title difference between the two.

I'll go back to my last post though, volume really means nothing... It's what a person likes. For some, Disney alone will be enough to say they go with Bluray. For others, something like Star Trek would mean they would chose HD DVD. If LOTR ends up format exclusive, that will sway people for sure.

I said that it's a win/win for us consumers in the sense that player prices are dropping fast because of the competition, but where we lose is this 'war' divides people and they have to make a decision as to what they really want. Not every movie needs to be High Def. But in order for one format to truly 'win' they will have to have the best blend of all genres that the masses prefer. Sony and Bluray wins with new releases, HD DVD wins with older classics.

My movie count for HD is 9 Bluray titles, and 16 HD DVD titles. The real format winner is still SDVD, where I have around 1400 SDVDs and still buy Standard Def at a rate of around 5:1 compared to either High Def format.

[John Simpson]

Nice to see some educated discussion going on here. I haven't visited AVS lately, but I hear it's been pretty brutal in the flame war...

For my two cents, I reckon there's little point in HD unless you have a 50" screen or bigger. Sure, most of us do who contribute here, but what's that in terms of the general population? I feel sorry for those folks with 30" LCDs who think HD is going to change their world. No wonder most "regular" folks are jaded by the whole thing...

(Did I just call us irregular? )

[wbassett]

John Simpson wrote:

Nice to see some educated discussion going on here. I haven't visited AVS lately, but I hear it's been pretty brutal in the flame war...

For my two cents, I reckon there's little point in HD unless you have a 50" screen or bigger. Sure, most of us do who contribute here, but what's that in terms of the general population? I feel sorry for those folks with 30" LCDs who think HD is going to change their world. No wonder most "regular" folks are jaded by the whole thing...

(Did I just call us irregular? )

1080p actually is the big difference when it comes to screen size, under 50" people generally won't see much of a difference if any between 1080 and 720. You will see a difference between 720p and 480p. Plus add in that an HDTV, even if it is a 720p set has newer and usually better video processing and even 480p will look better than on an SDTV.

I have a 27" LCD HDTV in our bedroom and even though it is 720p, I can say it looks much better than than an SDTV, and since I hooked up an A2 to it, it really sings! Again I will say that the newer technology also makes a big difference. Sitting right next to my LCD HDTV though is a 21" Dell Trinitron computer monitor that is capable of some very high resolution. I have an outboard TV converter hooked up to it so I can either watch things on the HDTV or switch my computer to the LCD and watch movies/TV on the Dell (even have the A2 connected to both sets). Because of the inputs and outputs of the outboard converter, I can only feed the Dell analog while the HDTV can take the HDMI output of the A2. There is a huge difference between the two even though the Dell isn't a slouch when it comes to resolution.

I think it comes down to improvements in technology though. I had a Toshiba Cinema Series 36" CRT TV for years and it looked incredible, but as the newer technology improved, I started seeing it fall behind.

Sorry everyone... as I look back I realize this is OT for this thread!

[MrPorterhouse]

wbassett wrote:

What is more important is what type of movies does a person like?

I've outlined this before and that is for people to take some time and look through both formats and make a 'wish list' of what movies are exclusive to each format. When I looked at the full list for both formats, Bluray did have a slight edge in total titles, but it really wasn't as big as people say or think. More important though is that the movies that I personally like are more HD DVD titles. So for me it wouldn't matter if BD had three times the titles, if I personally don't like them, then volume means nothing to me when it comes to enjoying a movie.

Well, when it comes down to people having to look into the future to judge what movies they might want on a particular format, then we really see how dumb, frustrating, and ridiculous this format war really is. To me, as I look forward, I see more blockbuster and big titles coming on Blu-ray. These types of titles are what tend to sell well, especially on high def. Does HD DVD have the studio firepower to change the 2:1 Blu-ray trend?

[Sonnie]

MrPorterhouse wrote:

Well, when it comes down to people having to look into the future to judge what movies they might want on a particular format, then we really see how dumb, frustrating, and ridiculous this format war really is. To me, as I look forward, I see more blockbuster and big titles coming on Blu-ray. These types of titles are what tend to sell well, especially on high def. Does HD DVD have the studio firepower to change the 2:1 Blu-ray trend?

I don't think it will ever matter. I see this format war as actually a beautiful thing for us consumers. If Blu-ray or HD-DVD had given up early on... we would not see 2 for 1 discs at $20... we would not see players for less than $200 and $300. What we would most likely see is players still selling in the $750-1000 range with discs in the $25-30 range. As it has worked out... I compliment HD-DVD for keeping Blu-ray in check. Combo players are going to come down in prices within a year and will end up being less expensive than the combo SACD/DVD-A players that were available a couple of years ago. Personally I don't believe either are ever going anywhere and we all need to accept that there are going to be 2 formats. It just really not a big deal and again, has actually been a good thing as far as I'm concerned.

[wbassett]

MrPorterhouse wrote:

Well, when it comes down to people having to look into the future to judge what movies they might want on a particular format, then we really see how dumb, frustrating, and ridiculous this format war really is. To me, as I look forward, I see more blockbuster and big titles coming on Blu-ray. These types of titles are what tend to sell well, especially on high def. Does HD DVD have the studio firepower to change the 2:1 Blu-ray trend?

True, but I wasn't really talking about future releases as much as people looking at the current content. I have known some people that bought one format and discovered they would have liked the exclusives on the other format better.

The studios are pretty evenly split now, so new releases and blockbusters is just a matter if the studio releases on high def, which most new movies are coming out in both High Def and SDVD. I'm happy and set... can pick up whatever comes out. All I was saying is people should take a look at the titles and then the players and make a decision from there.

I do know of a set I am anticipating and looking for that's not a new movie block buster and that's when they finally release all the Bond movies in High Def on Bluray!

Sonnie I agree, both formats will be around up until the next biggest and baddest format comes out that will replace everything- BD, HD DVD, and SDVD.

[MrPorterhouse]

Sonnie wrote:

I don't think it will ever matter. I see this format war as actually a beautiful thing for us consumers. If Blu-ray or HD-DVD had given up early on... we would not see 2 for 1 discs at $20... we would not see players for less than $200 and $300. What we would most likely see is players still selling in the $750-1000 range with discs in the $25-30 range. As it has worked out... I compliment HD-DVD for keeping Blu-ray in check. Combo players are going to come down in prices within a year and will end up being less expensive than the combo SACD/DVD-A players that were available a couple of years ago. Personally I don't believe either are ever going anywhere and we all need to accept that there are going to be 2 formats. It just really not a big deal and again, has actually been a good thing as far as I'm concerned.

From a selfish point of view, I agree. Its initially extremely good for the early adopters and for the well educated consumer/hobbyists. However, the whole 2 format thing is killing mass adoption by creating mass confusion. Your average consumer just doesn't know what to do and thinks that if they have a HDTV, that their DVD's are now HD DVD's. I'm all for competitive price wars, but for the good of having long term adoption and getting to a point where we'll see volume pricing on discs, there needs to be a unified format. I'm sure we'll get to price breaks on media even with 2 formats, but it'll take longer. Also, competing with SD DVD's hurts adoption of the HD formats.

[MrPorterhouse]

wbassett wrote: