Toshiba Defiant After HD DVD Setback

[majorloser]

The fat lady is behind stage warming up!

From the AP Wire:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories...MPLATE=DEFAULT

[MrPorterhouse]

"Only two major U.S. studios now support HD DVD, while five support Sony's Blu-ray disc. Warner is the last studio to put out movies in both formats, but will stop publishing HD DVDs in May.

Akio Ozaka, head of Toshiba America Consumer Products, said the company was surprised by Warner's announcement Friday.

"We were particularly disappointed that the decision was made in spite of the significant momentum HD DVD has gained," Ozaka said."

What I don't quite understand is what momentum? The standalone players for HD DVD come in at 49.3% of the market, and when you add in the PS3, HD DVD only has about 15% of the players. The HD DVD standalones used to be at something like 70% market share, so HD DVD standalones have been losing momentum in market share.

With discs, HD DVD has been steadily losing ground week after week, pulling only a 36% share for 2007. It's hard to find momentum for red when I look at the data. How do they figure the positive momentum? What data I'm I missing?

[Sonnie]

Oh com'on MrP... if you read the entire statement it's clear Ozaka is referring to the fact that they sold more HD-DVD players during the last quarter of 2007 than they have ever sold.

I, nor hardly any of us, can really know what will happen with the formats, but it sure doesn't sound like Toshiba is going to give up.

I also hope for the sake of all those who purchased HD-DVD players that they don't give up. Despite the fact the HD-DVD players make for some of the best upconverting SD-DVD players on the market.

[tonyvdb]

Sonnie wrote:

Despite the fact the HD-DVD players make for some of the best upconverting SD-DVD players on the market.

do you think its even better than the Samsung BluRay?

I think this next year is going to be the year that we see who comes out on top. I will continue to buy movies in either format just depending on who has it available, if its a choice I will get the BlueRay disc.

[Sonnie]

I really don't know about the Samsung upconversion yet. I have the BD-UP5000 on order, but it will not be shipped until 1/18. I do know that both of the Toshiba's I have owned have done the best upconversion I've seen thus far. It will be nice if the 5000 will oblige.

I plan to continue to buy my "must own" movies in both formats as well... and most likely BD if there is a choice. I'm anxious to see what BD will look like on my Panny 1080P PJ.

What I fear is if Toshiba does finally pull the plug is all of the sudden BD cost going to $30 with no discounts and new players at ridiculous prices. If it were not for Toshiba, I don't think we would see BD players as cheap as we have, which still aren't that cheap. Had we not seen BOGO on HD-DVD, would we have seen it on BD? Competition is good IMO. I prefer both formats survive. I just don't see the confusion that others claim to see.

[muzz]

Sonnie wrote:

What I fear is if Toshiba does finally pull the plug is all of the sudden BD cost going to $30 with no discounts and new players at ridiculous prices. If it were not for Toshiba, I don't think we would see BD players as cheap as we have, which still aren't that cheap. Had we not seen BOGO on HD-DVD, would we have seen it on BD? Competition is good IMO. I prefer both formats survive. I just don't see the confusion that others claim to see.

[MrPorterhouse]

Sonnie wrote:

What I fear is if Toshiba does finally pull the plug is all of the sudden BD cost going to $30 with no discounts and new players at ridiculous prices. If it were not for Toshiba, I don't think we would see BD players as cheap as we have, which still aren't that cheap. Had we not seen BOGO on HD-DVD, would we have seen it on BD? Competition is good IMO. I prefer both formats survive. I just don't see the confusion that others claim to see.

What you have to realize is that within the buffett of Blu-ray manufacturers, there is great competition to sell players. I don't think any manufacturer wants to give an edge to the competitors. You will continue to see fierce competition between Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer, Sharp, Samsung, and then you throw in the budget China players and you'll see prices continue to drop. Also, you have the high end jumping on board, with Denon and Marantz Blu-ray players that will satisfy your high end enthusiasts.

Now, software is controlled by the studios, so there is no telling what that means moving forward. Either way, pricing will come down. Even with a single format,(HD DVD or Blu-ray), pricing will continue to come down. Its the technology life cycle. Expensive at launch, then drops over time. Besides, the DVD model is what can keep prices in check for Blu-ray because no matter how slick the cool new technology is, if people can't justify the added expense, they'll just buy DVD. Blu-ray may not fall as low as DVD has, but you will continue to see BOGO's and sales and promotions.

[wbassett]

MrPorterhouse wrote:

What I don't quite understand is what momentum? The standalone players for HD DVD come in at 49.3% of the market, and when you add in the PS3, HD DVD only has about 15% of the players. The HD DVD standalones used to be at something like 70% market share, so HD DVD standalones have been losing momentum in market share.

With discs, HD DVD has been steadily losing ground week after week, pulling only a 36% share for 2007. It's hard to find momentum for red when I look at the data. How do they figure the positive momentum? What data I'm I missing?

I have a PS3 but I can say that I am one of the minority that bought it as a Bluray player first and foremost. Most sales were for people using it as a game console, in fact I will say majority of the sales were for that. So I wouldn't say if you included the PS3 it would bring Toshiba and HD DVD down to 15% of the market, but I do agree it decreases their numbers some. It does however provide a future BD customer base, which is undeniable, but the PS3, as good as it is, isn't the real deciding factor in all of this.

It is interesting that disc sales are reported as declining while the second half of 2007 saw the gap of available titles narrow between HD DVD and BD. That was some momentum, and of all the people I know, even those that have both formats, most seem to buy HD DVD.

I'm not trying to be argumentative, just say that HD DVD was gaining a lot of ground in 2007 and if Warner hadn't announced this, it could have been an entirely different landscape by the end of 2008. Disney was even teetering at one point, so yes there was some momentum on HD DVD's side for certain.

As far as players, I'm set and although I too want to see one format, I will snatch up clearance sales on discs for whichever format untimately goes under. One thing to remember is how long it took Beta to die off. It was several years before they were completely gone, so we're still not at an end to this yet, but this was the biggest event to date in the 'war'.

I expect to see some major price slashes on HD DVD players as well as more movie deals, but to consumers this will look like either clearance or a last ditch effort, and they may not be wrong on thinking that. This is my opinion, but the only thing that could change things now would be for player sales to jump to 70%, which is unlikely, or a major studio like say Disney to change formats or even start distributing on both formats, and I don't see that happening. There could be one final trump card out there though, but if it is thrown out on the table and played, it's a sign this is all over and that was the last resort.

If Sony does win, I won't be upset, I think we need one format. I just don't want to see prices go back up like they could.

[wbassett]

MrPorterhouse wrote:

What you have to realize is that within the buffett of Blu-ray manufacturers, there is great competition to sell players. I don't think any manufacturer wants to give an edge to the competitors. You will continue to see fierce competition between Sony, Panasonic, Pioneer, Sharp, Samsung, and then you throw in the budget China players and you'll see prices continue to drop. Also, you have the high end jumping on board, with Denon and Marantz Blu-ray players that will satisfy your high end enthusiasts.

One sign of a major price drop is LG's dual format computer drive. If they can sell a dual format HD DVD/BD drive for $299 and make a profit, cheaper player prices for single formats are on the horizon.

Sony has a unique part and role in all of this and could really put this to bed for good if they followed the model of the cell phone industry. Unlike Toshiba, Sony makes a lot of money on movie sales and distribution. They realistically could slash the prices of players and make back any losses with content. Cell phone providers do it all the time by giving basic phones away for free and then make their money back on service contracts. No... I'm not saying Sony should or would 'give' players away, but they certainly should and could build an entry level player that sells for under $100. If Sony were to do this, it would force the competing manufacturers to also reduce prices and that would be nothing but good.

My biggest fear in the whole format war thing isn't Sony winning or HD DVD winning, but us losing. If two formats remain and studios are divided, then mass consumer adoption will be slow to happen if at all. That leaves the door cracked for inferior download/On Demand content that ultimately will cost more and deliver inferior quality. Granted mp3's don't cost 'more', but quality did take a hit and a lot of people don't realize it. I don't ever expect to see movie prices drop to that of mp3's so we would have a lesser quality product at a premium price, and as I said, that is my fear.

[MrPorterhouse]

wbassett wrote:

My biggest fear in the whole format war thing isn't Sony winning or HD DVD winning, but us losing. If two formats remain and studios are divided, then mass consumer adoption will be slow to happen if at all.

Amen, to that. If either HD DVD or Blu-ray wins quickly, then we(the consumers) won't lose. There has been a great short term benefit of the competition between HD DVD and Blu-ray that has pushed prices down faster than if only 1 format launched, but since that benefit has already happened, it would be of even greater benefit for a single format to emerge quickly so we can see further price breaks with volume efficiencies of manufacturing that single format. Player prices will come down, and media prices will come down due to manufacturing efficiencies of increased production of a single format. We won't lose at all.

[Sonnie]

wbassett wrote:

My biggest fear in the whole format war thing isn't Sony winning or HD DVD winning, but us losing. If two formats remain and studios are divided, then mass consumer adoption will be slow to happen if at all.

MrPorterhouse wrote:

Amen, to that. If either HD DVD or Blu-ray wins quickly, then we(the consumers) won't lose. There has been a great short term benefit of the competition between HD DVD and Blu-ray that has pushed prices down faster than if only 1 format launched, but since that benefit has already happened, it would be of even greater benefit for a single format to emerge quickly so we can see further price breaks with volume efficiencies of manufacturing that single format. Player prices will come down, and media prices will come down due to manufacturing efficiencies of increased production of a single format. We won't lose at all.

I'm just not sure how you guys come up with this reasoning. How do you know this to be true? I think we are being brain washed into believing this because I just don't see it that way. We are trying to read the minds of millions of consumers and I don't think we can do that. I don't see any confusion and I don't see the fact that there is two formats slowing down the mass consumer adoption. And I definitely do not see prices coming down on players and media just because one format wins. How do we know these things can be factual? Have we polled millions of Americans or is our guessing influenced by what we desire to happen?

[MrPorterhouse]

Sonnie wrote:

I'm just not sure how you guys come up with this reasoning. How do you know this to be true? I think we are being brain washed into believing this because I just don't see it that way. We are trying to read the minds of millions of consumers and I don't think we can do that. I don't see any confusion and I don't see the fact that there is two formats slowing down the mass consumer adoption. And I definitely do not see prices coming down on players and media just because one format wins. How do we know these things can be factual? Have we polled millions of Americans or is our guessing influenced by what we desire to happen?

We don't have 1 format yet. Any projection is just speculation. All I can speak of is my take on what I have seen happen over the past 2 years. Very few consumers will actually have a desire and certainly won't find a justification of moving to high def. When you add the confusion of 2 formats, it really turns people away, IMHO. What's there to be confused about, you ask? Well, take someone who enjoys those pretty high def images they see in Best Buy. They ask about it. You have to explain that there are 2 formats, each requiring a specific player(or they could purchase a combo player that costs a lot more, but plays both formats), certain movies come out on one format, certain movies come out on the other format. Neither one will play in your regular DVD player or your computer or your car's dvd player. Which movies are in which format? Then, you have to explain about movie studios and etc...That's really confusing to someone who is just curious about that pretty picture they see in the store. Its much too involved. Simplicity is needed if we should ever expect to come close to high def media becoming mainstream.

[wbassett]

Sonnie wrote:

I'm just not sure how you guys come up with this reasoning. How do you know this to be true? I think we are being brain washed into believing this because I just don't see it that way. We are trying to read the minds of millions of consumers and I don't think we can do that. I don't see any confusion and I don't see the fact that there is two formats slowing down the mass consumer adoption. And I definitely do not see prices coming down on players and media just because one format wins. How do we know these things can be factual? Have we polled millions of Americans or is our guessing influenced by what we desire to happen?

Well first I will say it is my opinion and I don't know it to be 'true'. I don't think anyone does for that matter.

There definitely is a split that a lot of general consumers don't like or even understand. I've heard so many confused people in the stores it's not even funny, so in that sense, yes two formats other than SDVD is very confusing to a lot of people (not necessarily everyone) and makes it harder for them to adopt either format.

I agree that it took two format's competing to bring prices down, no disagreement from me there whatsoever! My personal opinion is now that prices are coming down, the best thing would be either one format or all movies available on both formats. If they are available on both, then the consumers will either accept it and buy the format they favor and both coexist together, or if consumers unanimously go with one format over the other, then they decided and not the studios or companies. Unfortunately, that's a perfect world scenario and we all know that's not going to happen.

Sonnie sorry if my opinions came across as speculating and ended up misleading anyone... wasn't my intentions, just saying what my concern was. For right now I am still buying both formats depending on the price and title.

[toecheese]

Competition is the only reason BR's prices have come down. Same reason the PS/3 price came down. Sony loves to corner a market- I thought they learned their lesson with Betamax, SACD, Minidisc, Memory stick, but they keep plugging away- and I loathe to think they might 'win' this war.

[Sonnie]

I guess I'm just not seeing the confusion you guys are seeing, but either way, I hope you don't base your thoughts that there is confusion based on what people opinions are in forums and/or on a few customers in stores that seemed confused. It likely those same customers would be confused over the difference between 4:3 and 16:9... or SD vs HD... and many other things as well.

I have several buddies around here that have HD sets at home. They never visit online forums and such, but they completely understand the difference between Blu-ray and HD-DVD. I think it only gets as complicated or confusing as we want it to be. It's actually very simple and much easier to understand than it is that Ford and Chev are two different manufacturers and they make several brands of cars. We have hundreds of different speaker manufacturers to choose from... some producing different sounds than others. There are always going to be choices and decisions to be made.

That pretty HD picture that people see at my house is from Dish Network. It's not hard for most people to understand that there is Dish, DirecTV and various cable companies depending on where you live. Each offer different HD channels. Oh but wait... each company has receivers with different features. You have to decide which channels and which features you want... or you could pay more and get both.

Generally, if the consumer really wants to understand it, they will research it and figure it out. It's one reason we have forums like this one. Otherwise they will simply go with whatever the salesman sells them, whether it be Blu-ray, HD-DVD, Ford, Chev, Dish or DirecTV.

Since the format war has gone as far as it has, to me it would make sense to continue and by continuing force the studios to all produce movies in both formats. Otherwise I and thousands of others who have spent a lot of money on one format or the other are going to end up with a player that will only play the movies we've already purchased and nothing new. And when that player tears up... the HD movies we purchased are no longer worth anything because we can't find a player for them. Yet, if there are dual format players, none of us have anything to worry about. Once our one format player tears up or wears out, we can get a replacement. We even have the option of buying a dual format so that we can enjoy both formats.

[muzz]

MrPorterhouse wrote:

Amen, to that. If either HD DVD or Blu-ray wins quickly, then we(the consumers) won't lose. There has been a great short term benefit of the competition between HD DVD and Blu-ray that has pushed prices down faster than if only 1 format launched, but since that benefit has already happened, it would be of even greater benefit for a single format to emerge quickly so we can see further price breaks with volume efficiencies of manufacturing that single format. Player prices will come down, and media prices will come down due to manufacturing efficiencies of increased production of a single format. We won't lose at all.

I'll believe that when I actually see it, and not until.

Prices have finally STARTED to come down for the BD camp- Joe Blow still isn't gonna buy alot at the current prices.

[SteveCallas]

Lack of mass adoption has nothing to do with confusion and everything to do with price of the players, lack of a truely dramatic leap forward in PQ, and most importantly, price of the media.

I'd consider myself an enthusiast - I've got several thousands invested in my system, DIY subwoofers, DIY absoprtion pannels, 1080p flat screen, DISH HD, 200+ dvds, etc. - and even I didn't jump into this game until that HD-A2 sale for $99. There just wasn't enough to motivate or entice me to go the HD route for more than that $99 price, as I refuse to pay $30 for a movie. I've had my player since Thanksgiving and I have purchsed exactly 0 HD DVDs. Has nothing to do with any claimed superority of Blue Ray vs HD DVD, it has everything to do with cost of the discs. I'm single and making very good money, so it's not that I can't easily afford $30 movies, it's just the principle of the matter. When I can get dvds for and average of $5-$7, is it worth $24 more to get slightly better picture quality? No thanks, I'd rather get 4-6 dvds for the cost of 1 HD DVD.

I mentioned this in another post, but that's also why I think Blue Ray has sold more discs. The early adopters who were willing to spend $400-$1200 on a Blue Ray player are more than happy to spend $30 per movie to get use out of their new toy.

My dad has two HDTVs and he didn't want anything to do with a new high definition disc player, as regular dvds look great to him, he rents most of his movies at local video stores, and he can buy dvds at cheap prics. When dvd first came out though, he had to have a dvd player right away. The jump from VHS to dvd was significantly more impressive than dvd to high definition dvd. I bet you my dad is representative of 75% of HDTV owners out there. He picked himself up an HD-A2 at Thanksgiving at $99 just because I told him he should, and guess how many HD DVDs he has bought since then? Yep, 0.

So I don't foresee any mass adoption of Blue Ray if HD DVD dies off, only the normal sales they have been seeing per month plus an intial spike of former HD DVD owners who want to continue purchasing HD movies moving over to the new format. HD DVD by far had the best chance at mass adoption with $99-$200 players - if only their discs were priced more reasonably.

And the PS3 factor in all this is slim in my opinion. That machine hasn't been selling very well because there still just aren't any must have games. MGS 4 has been pushed back to Fall or Holiday of 2008. Yes, some people buy a PS3 soley as a Blue Ray player or media server, but that market is very small. Xbox 360 is the system for hardcore gaming and Wii is the system for casual game players. The PS3 is finding itself as the odd man out in this console war.

Lastly, I'm just not seeing the logic in movie studios siding with one format as opposed to staying format nuetral. They must be getting huge checks from each camp, because they are essentially turning their backs on a lot of potential business in the form of owners of the other format. Cost to manufacture HD DVDs if you were already making dvds wasn't exactly huge, so entry into the game was easy. I'm just not sure what they hoped to achieve.

[wbassett]

To me mass adoption will come when player prices are down to that of DVD players for entry level BD players. At that point realistically studio's could start weening people off SDVD by slowly dropping their SDVD title production, but this will take a while seeing how many base SDVD users/customer's there are out there. The only way people will switch as a 'mass', will be when there is no price difference between players and movies, and when studios stop making SDVD. We still have a ways before that day arrives.

My 'guess' is we're still a a year and a half, maybe two years out before we see that, but it will eventually happen. My prediction is when the time comes, all players will be high def with backwards legacy compatability for SDVD. As long as the price is the same as current SDVD players, it will make no difference to consumers buying a new player and less of a sour taste for those that have a player and don't feel they should have to buy a new one, but if they want the newest released movie then they'll have to buy a player. That's the way it happened with Beta to VHS, and then VHS to DVD, and how it will play out with this as well.

As far as this thread topic, we really have to wait and hear what Toshiba is going to say but I can't see how they can recover from this one. Of all the changes in the tides of this 'war', this has to have been the single biggest event, and jinkies was it huge!

Someone else mentioned this, and seeing that there is a huge HD DVD base out there, I can see Toshiba eventually (sooner than later) making a dual format player. That helps their base of earlier adopters salvage their HD DVD libraries, and also would be a financial factor for Toshiba. Now what I just said was pure speculation for sake of conversation. None of us have any idea what Toshiba is going to say or do until they make a press release, which should be coming as soon as they get out of their emergency board room meetings.