It doesn't matter who wins the format war... HD media will eventually turn to downloads...

**tonyvdb** · **01-12-08, 02:47 PM**

Quote:

majorloser wrote:

Any form of mechanical device will die. DVD's, hardrives, albums, tapes, 8-tracks, VHS.....
Flash memory is a renewable resource that can be easily updated.
And downloading doesn't mean internet. It means transferring data into a device, like a flash card.

True but these forms of media will take a long time to replace DVDs probably 20 or more years before we see that a common thing. Companies have way to much time and money invested in the current formats to switch over now.

**majorloser** · **01-12-08, 02:53 PM**

Quote:

tonyvdb wrote:

True but these forms of media will take a long time to replace DVDs probably 20 or more years before we see that a common thing. Companies have way to much time and money invested in the current formats to switch over now.

I seem to remember the same EXACT arguement when the CD came out. And look where the music industry is? Digital media is growing faster than the recording studios can adapt. Downloaded music content is destroying the way they do business.

Is that a bad thing? As far as I'm concerned, NO.

Adapt, evolve or die.

**tonyvdb** · **01-12-08, 02:56 PM**

It totaly is a bad thing because the quality of the downloaded media is terable compared to a real CD Movies will be no different as the file will have to be compressed in order to save space and the quality will suffer because of it.
Any person who takes audio/video seriously knows that the real thing has far superior quality to anything downloaded.

**majorloser** · **01-12-08, 02:57 PM**

It seems like there's a lot of devices in the CE industry that are adopting the USB port. They are allowing easy integration with iPods. Even automobiles have USB ports for iPods.

And what can be done over a USB port?

Maybe transfer data?

**majorloser** · **01-12-08, 02:59 PM**

Quote:

tonyvdb wrote:

It totaly is a bad thing because the quality of the downloaded media is terable compared to a real CD Movies will be no different as the file will have to be compressed in order to save space and the quality will suffer because of it.
Any person who takes audio/video seriously knows that the real thing has far superior quality to anything downloaded.

Oh, and the SD-DVD that everybody runs down to Blockbuster for is better than the "real thing"?

The public has stated what they want in music. Again, I hate Apple.....BUT.

**tonyvdb** · **01-12-08, 03:05 PM**

Quote:

majorloser wrote:

And what can be done over a USB port?

Maybe transfer data?

USB is still too slow for video in any high quality modes HD would never work. You would first have to upload the file onto your Hard drive for playback. Playback of any HD content is very CPU intensive as well so dont expect your portable DVD players to do this any time soon as they dont have near enough power and the cost to manufacture them would be high.

**tonyvdb** · **01-12-08, 03:09 PM**

Quote:

majorloser wrote:

Oh, and the SD-DVD that everybody runs down to Blockbuster for is better than the "real thing"?

SD DVD for 65% of the population who have 32" or smaller TVs it most defiantly is.
HD really doesn't make a difference until you blow the image up to the large sizes some of us have now.

**majorloser** · **01-12-08, 03:24 PM**

Quote:

tonyvdb wrote:

USB is still too slow for video in any high quality modes HD would never work. You would first have to upload the file onto your Hard drive for playback. Playback of any HD content is very CPU intensive as well so dont expect your portable DVD players to do this any time soon as they dont have near enough power and the cost to manufacture them would be high.

Let's not forget that USB 3.0 is getting released soon at 4.8 Gbps.

Oh, and if 65% of the population have 32" sets and smaller and they like SD-DVD's, then that must mean that 35% with a set larger than 32" has one of the HD formats or just rents the SD-DVD's from the local store because they're forced to.

The HD formats are not better than the "real thing", but they are better than SD-DVD's.
Just like MP3's are not better than the real thing, but better than radio.
(and a heck of lot easy to get and control)

**MrPorterhouse** · **01-12-08, 05:04 PM**

Comcast is set to change TV this year. I need to go back and refresh myself with the Keynote from CES, but if I remember correctly Direct TV was set to have 100HD channels this year, and Comcast put up their number of 1000 HD choices(with On Demand) by the end of 2008. On Demand is really a great concept, sort of the Poor Man's Kaleidescape system.
http://www.kaleidescape.com/products/

The Kaleidescape solution is awesome, but its very expensive. If something like this was availible at an affordable price, just about everybody would jump on it. Comcast could build a bank with something like this in On Demand fashion, and tie it into a Rent-to-Own concept where if you want to have a permanent copy on your hard drive, you pay a price and download it at your leisure. Many, many ways to catch a fish here.

**Sonnie** · **01-12-08, 06:36 PM**

Well yeah... I'm all for it and it would be great, but it's still physical media and not what the OP was implying. You can download to a DVD as well. The SD or flash card is just a smaller medium.

**MrPorterhouse** · **01-12-08, 06:41 PM**

Below is a quoted post by Amir from AVS. He is talking in response to whether or not Blu-ray or HD DVD would be the last packaged physical media. He brings a perspective from an insider working for Microsoft. Its interesting.

"BD format was created before year 2000. It has taken it 8 years to get to this point and they have a few more years to go before the kinks are worked out. HD DVD is also 6-7 years old (plus research time before that). And for both, we have a tiny market that has gotten off the ground yet.

I imagine we can all agree that no one would be in a mood to introduce a new format for say, 8-10 years from now. That would put us at 2016 to 2018 for introduction, and year 2020 before that format is ready for scale. That means the business is for 2020 to 2030 assuming a 10 year life cycle.

So I ask you, do you really think people in 2020+ would want to take delicate shiny discs and spin them with motors to play movies? If so, every technology executive that has anything to do with this business, needs to find a new career .

By 2020, wired ultra-broadband services will be the norm, letting you keep all of your movies on a server and play them anytime you like, with no fear of ever losing them. And even the cellular connection will be able to stream high fidelity content to your car, portable video player, etc. Our laptops will have multi terabyte drives that can act as caches for content letting you play content on the handful of remote islands in the world without ultra-broadband connections.

TV viewing will be all different too. Instead of wondering what is on, you will be wondering what has been been on because your service provider will be storing the broadcast programming on every channel for the last few weeks, letting you access any program during that time without having to have spinning disks in your home, and manually programmed to record things. Linear TV as we know it, will be history and with it the PVR to get around its restrictions. And computers/software will do, what we have to do manually today.

You will have unprecedented access to content as we enjoy with music today (which record store had 5 million plus songs on their shelves which is the norm for typical electronic stores?). Ease of access means you will consume more of it, which results in growth of the overall market. And with competition, comes lower prices. Everyone will be happy and able to watch what they really want, rather than what is readily available.

Are these bold predictions? You bet. And that is where you want me to be. Some 6-7 years ago when broadband deployments were just starting, we decided to break loose from then standards to develop a next generation codec which you know as VC-1 to compete on the internet with Real Networks. Worried that standards were falling behind commercial deployment, a group in ITU (later merged with MPEG) decided to develop MPEG-4 AVC. If we did not have foresight to develop such technologies before consumers see the need, you would all be missing something important whether it is the number of channels on your satellite feed, more and better quality content on your HD optical, or general internet viewing.

So what should we do with so many folks saying they don’t want digital download and that it would never take off? My answer? Nothing . When I worked at Sony, the late chairman and co-founder of Sony used to say that if you asked LP music playing consumers what they thought was next, they would never tell you that it would be a portable music player in your pocket (Walkman). Likewise, when it comes to technological advancements, we know what is possible far more than consumers do. "

**brent_s** · **01-12-08, 07:48 PM**

As an IT guy, I've been hearing/chasing the promise of the paperless offcie for nearly 20 years. Hasn't happened yet...reduced volume at best. Humans, by nature, are hoarders...we like to touch things we "own".

The music industry stuggles are being caused by a lack of quality content, IMO. It has much less to do with the distribution method of that content. When albums had mostly quality tracks instead of one good track and the rest filler, people didn't mind purchasing the whole album.

Major, you don't post your location, but it must be a *major* metro area. I think you overestimate the rate of bandwidth rollout. Wilmington has a population of around 100K, not huge, but not exactly rural either. Definitely don't have fiber to the curb and no announced plans for such. Our 3G cellular in the background would be slower than the 1 day turnaround I get from Netflix. There's nothing on the foreseeable horizon that I can see driving the massive infrastructure ovehaul needed to provide enough bandwidth to replace physical media.

I don't think HD-DVD/BluRay are the next big thing, either. Even with a single format, I think HD is likely to remain an elite niche product, similar to LD. It's just not revolutionary enough. However, I don't see us making a direct leap to an on demand world from the current model. I haven't seen a hint of affordable technology that would provide the bandwidth and storage capacity needed to provide the choice and convenience we experience today. Technological advances can't keep advancing progressively faster...despite what Congress thinks (see the auto industry efficiency/emissions laws they passed years ago that presumed battery tech that still hasn't appeared).

-Brent

**Sonnie** · **01-12-08, 08:07 PM**

My take would be like Brents... and obviously we are merely expressing our opinions. Lord willing I will be around in 12 years to see where we are at and I doubt physical media will be gone.

I think HD will continue to be slow to be adopted by the masses, but may possibly and eventually get somewhere, who really knows. It will interesting over the next few years.

**Hakka** · **01-12-08, 10:06 PM**

Some parts of the world are a long way behind the US as far as things like internet and cable networks are concerned. I'm in Australia, not in a capital city but its one of the larger ones other than the capitals. The best broadband service I can buy is 1.5mbps adsl, and there are no plans in place to upgrade this in the forseeable future.
There is not even a cable network available here.

HD downloads are not going to be a viable option for a long time.

Hakka.

**majorloser** · **01-13-08, 05:59 AM**

Quote:

brent_s wrote:

As an IT guy, I've been hearing/chasing the promise of the paperless offcie for nearly 20 years. Hasn't happened yet...reduced volume at best. Humans, by nature, are hoarders...we like to touch things we "own".

The music industry stuggles are being caused by a lack of quality content, IMO. It has much less to do with the distribution method of that content. When albums had mostly quality tracks instead of one good track and the rest filler, people didn't mind purchasing the whole album.

Major, you don't post your location, but it must be a *major* metro area. I think you overestimate the rate of bandwidth rollout. Wilmington has a population of around 100K, not huge, but not exactly rural either. Definitely don't have fiber to the curb and no announced plans for such. Our 3G cellular in the background would be slower than the 1 day turnaround I get from Netflix. There's nothing on the foreseeable horizon that I can see driving the massive infrastructure ovehaul needed to provide enough bandwidth to replace physical media.

I don't think HD-DVD/BluRay are the next big thing, either. Even with a single format, I think HD is likely to remain an elite niche product, similar to LD. It's just not revolutionary enough. However, I don't see us making a direct leap to an on demand world from the current model. I haven't seen a hint of affordable technology that would provide the bandwidth and storage capacity needed to provide the choice and convenience we experience today. Technological advances can't keep advancing progressively faster...despite what Congress thinks (see the auto industry efficiency/emissions laws they passed years ago that presumed battery tech that still hasn't appeared).

-Brent

You guys are really missing my point, and it was the point I was trying to make in my original thread. No matter what happens to BluRay and HD-DVD they are mechanical means of data storage. I NEVER once said streaming. It has nothing to do with physical media as Sonny seems to think I'm saying. And you guys keep thinking that media needs to be at "full bandwidth". Nobody says that mass media for the general public needs to be at 1080p/60 with DolbyHD surround. It only needs to be at average broadcast HD quality or at the least 720p.

The USA has become a bunch of bandwidth junkies. Most cellphone providers are being forced to provide fiber runs to rural areas or major microwave systems just to keep up with new customers. Look at the water tower in you rural towns. They've getting so many antennas on them they look like porcupines. Even most traffic light systems are going to fiber. The fiber infrastructure is getting laid but not being shared and distributed. It's just "point to point".

No, I don't live in a metro area. I live in the suburbs of a small town. And I don't have the greatest speed on my DSL. And "YES" I have Dish NetworK HD. But there are more ways of getting data into your home.

The general public is going to be FORCED to purchase a new HD television with the changes that are happening. I know, you're saying, "They aren't being forced!" Even Sonny had to bring up the satellite box will still work. Well, if you tell the public their set isn't good enough any more to receive television signals over just their old rabbit ears, you basically told them their set is too old or obsolete. It's all perception. Even the satellite companies are pushing deals on new flat panel sets for subscribers, "to make them compatable with newer technology".

What I've been trying to say is that the general public has already gotten sick of the BD vs. HD war. And they never really cared to begin with. This is the PERFECT time to release a form of media that is purely flash based and is also available from some sort of "download". You could still rent or even sell them "preloaded". But there can always be another way of getting the data on the material.

And don't even try to tell me about waiting for downloads vs. driving to the store. I've spent many DAYS and NIGHTS in the not so distant past waiting for ****** downloaded MP3's over dial-up connection. You're getting hung up on the "instant gratification". I'll bet you're the same guys who complain about the load time on their HD players.

It could be as simple as PPV that stored in a removable media. Let's say you have a queue with your cable or satelite provider. When the film is ready to be streamed a DVR automatically records it and transfers it to another type of media (not disc). Heck, they already get about $9 per movie on PPV. And you can't even stop it to go to the bathroom (yeah, some people have DVR's).

Think about it here for a minute. How many channels is your provider wasting on PPV? Why can't one channel run ALL of the movies one right after the other. Your box records all of them and saves them. You could even have different themed channels. Set your box to record only one. Now if you chose to "buy" them it will transfer the ones you either preselected or want later onto your media. The internal "temporary drive" is constantly being written over.

Cable and satellite providers charge monthly fee for things like DVR service and then charge rental for the box. The public has gotten used to paying for things they don't own.

I can go on and on but it will always come back to the evil DRM preventing growth.(another thing we don't need to get into)

As I was trying to bring to light in the other thread is that the studio rats are jumping ship from HD-DVD and the public just doesn't care. It's still just another shiny disc. Could be a CD or a DVD as far as their concerned. It's not like the local rental store has tons of them sitting around. And it's not like Blockbuster has rental players to try just like video games or VCR's in the past.

The USA is running out of cheap bandwidth. The telecommunications companies are going to be forced to changer their infrastructure or one of the other utilities will just set into the void. Bandwidth will always be an issue. Management and distribution is the key to almost all future consumer electroincs success.

**MrPorterhouse** · **01-13-08, 11:41 AM**

HD Media that we hold in our hands, whether it be disc, tape, cartridge, flash drive, or whatever, will be around for a long while, but what is happening is that the digital era is just begining to take life. This is going to supplement the physical media, and what the long term has in store, who knows. Download technology can happen in a great number of ways, and it will be very convienent for me to go "shopping" by just clicking on what I want and then have that media in my hard drive, which I can access from any device that I own, whether it be a tv in the kitchen, a big screen in the theater, a portable dvd player in the car, a desktop PC or anything else I choose. Everything controlled by a central unit that can send out the media at my command. That is the direction everything is headed. For those that want to spin a disc or play a VCR tape, that will always be availible by legacy equipment.

**bobgpsr** · **01-13-08, 11:54 AM**

I'll go for the idea of 32 GB or 16 GB SD cards stuck into a movie vending kiosk at your local video store or even convenient store.

Only have to get the ultra high speed internet (ala FIOS) to those kiosks -- not everyone's home.

32 GB SD card was announced by Panasonic at this year's CES. Toshiba and Samsung have also announced plans to make them.

**Sonnie** · **01-13-08, 04:17 PM**

Quote:

majorloser wrote:

You guys are really missing my point, and it was the point I was trying to make in my original thread.

As I was trying to bring to light in the other thread is that the studio rats are jumping ship from HD-DVD and the public just doesn't care.

I'm not sure why you insist on bringing up an "original thread".

Everything you have talked about on this subject is right here in this thread.

As I have already pointed out to you on two different occasions and in accordance with our rules that you have apparently ignored... this thread and your point has absolutely nothing to do with Toshiba being defiant after an HD-DVD setback. They are two completely different topics and warrant two different threads.

The only reason why you think anyone is missing your point is because you have changed it three times. When someone doesn't see it your way, you respond condescendingly and change your point.

Quote:

majorloser wrote:

No matter what happens to BluRay and HD-DVD they are mechanical means of data storage. I NEVER once said streaming. It has nothing to do with physical media as Sonny seems to think I'm saying.

Here is your original statement: Mr and Mrs. Joe Sixpack are looking for convienence. The downloaded formats will eventually win just because they're the easiest way to get the material into the home. No warehouse, no postage, minimal staffing.........in other words CHEAPER.

Now... if you meant all this other stuff you are bringing up now, the statement above doesn't even begin to summarize it.

I'm not sure what you would expect everyone think of the above statement other than how everyone has responded. Obviously you cannot seem to say what you really mean... or again, if someone calls your hand on it, you change it up again.

You also stated: A digital stream could just as easily be sent down a water line. Is a digital stream different from streaming?

Quote:

majorloser wrote:

The general public is going to be FORCED to purchase a new HD television with the changes that are happening.

This is simply not true. Some, possibly even many, may opt to buy a HDTV, but no one will be forced to buy one. People owning satellite and cable boxes, which is the method most homes get TV, shouldn't have to do anything and most of them do not have HDTV sets now. Those that don't have one of the above can get a converter box.

Quote:

majorloser wrote:

What I've been trying to say is that the general public has already gotten sick of the BD vs. HD war.

For the most part, the general public hardly knows there is a war.

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