It doesn't matter who wins the format war... HD media will eventually turn to downloads...

**majorloser** · **01-11-08, 09:16 PM**

I think the real point is, "Who cares who wins!"

Until you can go to the neighborhood rental place or on-line renter and readily get any of the formats, it doesn't matter

Mr and Mrs. Joe Sixpack are looking for convienence. The downloaded formats will eventually win just because they're the easiest way to get the material into the home. No warehouse, no postage, minimal staffing.........in other words CHEAPER.

**Sonnie** · **01-11-08, 09:16 PM**

Quote:

I think the real point is, "Who cares who wins!"

Until you can go to the neighborhood rental place or on-line renter and readily get any of the formats, it doesn't matter

Mr and Mrs. Joe Sixpack are looking for convienence. The downloaded formats will eventually win just because they're the easiest way to get the material into the home. No warehouse, no postage, minimal staffing.........in other words CHEAPER.

That's very possible, but someone will need to figure out a way to squeeze all those GB's into a really tiny package for downloading.

**SteveCallas** · **01-11-08, 11:34 PM**

I don't think download formats will ever take off. What percentage of America has high speed internet, maybe 40%? I have 6 meg cable, which is decent, and I shudder at the thought of how long it would take to download a ~50gig HD movie. And when I do download it, it disappers as soon as I'm done watching it, right? So then I'd have to download it all over again if I ever wanted to watch it again.

Nah, a physical piece of media with a movie on it is here to stay for a LONG time.

**wbassett** · **01-12-08, 12:48 AM**

Quote:

SteveCallas wrote:

I don't think download formats will ever take off. What percentage of America has high speed internet, maybe 40%? I have 6 meg cable, which is decent, and I shudder at the thought of how long it would take to download a ~50gig HD movie. And when I do download it, it disappers as soon as I'm done watching it, right? So then I'd have to download it all over again if I ever wanted to watch it again.

Nah, a physical piece of media with a movie on it is here to stay for a LONG time.

Plus until everyone has FIOS (and even then if everyone has it, it will be traffice clogged) DL of HD is unrealistic. Add to that downloaded movies, even HD is inferior than disc based content this is something I personally am not looking for as the 'next best thing'.

**MrPorterhouse** · **01-12-08, 08:17 AM**

Quote:

SteveCallas wrote:

I don't think download formats will ever take off. What percentage of America has high speed internet, maybe 40%? I have 6 meg cable, which is decent, and I shudder at the thought of how long it would take to download a ~50gig HD movie. And when I do download it, it disappers as soon as I'm done watching it, right? So then I'd have to download it all over again if I ever wanted to watch it again.

Nah, a physical piece of media with a movie on it is here to stay for a LONG time.

I agree that physical media will be around, but did you listen to the Comcast Keynote at CES 2008? This was a highlight of the show in the what Comcast has planned to roll-out in 2008, and beyond. With they way they are going to "open the pipe" for high speed capacity, you'll be able to download a full High Rez movie in 3 min. 56 sec. That's pretty amazing, really. The future is changing faster than even us techies can imagine, let alone what your average mass consumer can understand.

**majorloser** · **01-12-08, 09:25 AM**

How many DAYS do you wait for Blockbuster or Netflix to get you the movie you want? There are more ways than just wired internet connections to get media into your home. There's lots of unused cell phone bandwidth available at night. Pick you movie and it's available for you to watch the next day. Still faster than any Snail Mail service.

You guys really need to start thinking outside the box. Physical media will always become obsolete.

**Sonnie** · **01-12-08, 11:32 AM**

Quote:

majorloser wrote:

Physical media will always become obsolete.

I'm not sure that will become true in our lifetime or anytime in the foreseeable future. There are too many people in the world that don't have Internet access, much less a computer.

**majorloser** · **01-12-08, 12:03 PM**

Every form of physical media becomes obsolete. With the rapid changes in technology the end comes soon after the introduction.

For all you guys that still spin albums........

There is so much available bandwidth out there that's not being used efficiently. Bandwidth distribution and sales will be the ultimate war.

**muzz** · **01-12-08, 12:05 PM**

I don't DL coming anytime soon.

I have the same as steve, and although it's pretty quick, it still takes awhile to DL a PC Game demo, never mind a full blown 30 gigs or something like that.

Not only that, but it's been discussed that Comcast sees that kinda activity, and puts a clamp on it.. don't know if it's true, but it's been discussed like it is.

**majorloser** · **01-12-08, 12:09 PM**

Quote:

Sonnie wrote:

I'm not sure that will become true in our lifetime or anytime in the foreseeable future. There are too many people in the world that don't have Internet access, much less a computer.

But are willing to buy a device that will play discs. The rent or buy these discs. Oh and let's not forget, they go "on-line" to rent discs.

What about a device that receives it's material from other sources? Radio? Satelite? Telephone?

You don't think the telephone companies are trying to reinvent themselves? The cable companies? How about the power companies? Every one of those utilities has a direct line into your life.

**majorloser** · **01-12-08, 12:17 PM**

Quote:

muzz wrote:

I don't DL coming anytime soon.

I have the same as steve, and although it's pretty quick, it still takes awhile to DL a PC Game demo, never mind a full blown 30 gigs or something like that.

Not only that, but it's been discussed that Comcast sees that kinda activity, and puts a clamp on it.. don't know if it's true, but it's been discussed like it is.

But you're willing to drive to the store to pick up a rental disc or wait days for it to arrive in the mail?
And these "people" that don't have computers have one of the HD disc formats........

What if you placed your choices in your queue and it downloads to a hard drive ready for you to view when it's done? It would definitely be done before Snail Mail.

Then take into account that prioritizing data feeds and scheduling premium feed times could drop wait?

Think outside the box guys! You are surrounded by sources of bandwidth feed and you ignore them.

**muzz** · **01-12-08, 01:32 PM**

Quote:

majorloser wrote:

But you're willing to drive to the store to pick up a rental disc or wait days for it to arrive in the mail?
And these "people" that don't have computers have one of the HD disc formats........

What if you placed your choices in your queue and it downloads to a hard drive ready for you to view when it's done? It would definitely be done before Snail Mail.

Then take into account that prioritizing data feeds and scheduling premium feed times could drop wait?

Think outside the box guys! You are surrounded by sources of bandwidth feed and you ignore them.

I have high speed, and it's still way too slow, not only that, but it's shared, so if DL is to become the norm, it'll have to get ALOT faster to really take off, not only that, but there will be a need for much larger drives to handle all this data if it's the Cable Co(more bandwidth AND a much larger drive/new box isn't coming free), and if it's NOT the cable co, then of course you will have to BUY the hardware, and then you are still at the mercy of your providers speed.

It'll be awhile before the masses will have High Speed, because of cost, and availability.... last I checked, my internet service was like $50 a month, and alot of folks I know don't use cable because of that, some have cheap DSL because it's faster than dialup, but still affordable.

I don't do the netflix thing, I buy my discs.

I am very disappointed that BD looks to be the one to come out on top, my issue is cost... that also being the MAIN reason I backed HD DVD.

Lets just agree that we disagree, and leave it at that.

Peace

m

**SteveCallas** · **01-12-08, 01:41 PM**

Quote:

MrPorterhouse wrote:

With they way they are going to "open the pipe" for high speed capacity, you'll be able to download a full High Rez movie in 3 min. 56 sec.

Sure, if it is highly compressed. No way would the bit rate be the same as a high definition disc if it could be downloaded in 4 minutes using residentially available high speed internet, even with rollout plans of 2008.

Quote:

majorloser wrote:

How many DAYS do you wait for Blockbuster or Netflix to get you the movie you want? There are more ways than just wired internet connections to get media into your home. There's lots of unused cell phone bandwidth available at night. Pick you movie and it's available for you to watch the next day. Still faster than any Snail Mail service.

Zero days, I don't use mail services. I'm talking about owning the actual movies - as in I can watch it whenever I want, as many times as I want. If I get bored or don't like the first half of a movie, take it out and put something else in....not wait another two days to get to the next movie. Plus, I like being able to actually own the music and movies in my collection - I don't want the movie studios charging me a fee to temporarily view "their" property. This would completely wipe out the used sales market too, which is how I purchase the bulk of my media.

But let's play devil's advocate and say 50% of high speed internet users (maybe 20% of Americans using internet altogether) start downloading high resolution movies and queing them up with the expectation of them being ready in two days. What happens to bandwidth for everybody else, including the people downloading movies, for other internet surfing and downloading purposes? Bandwith will be severly bogged down and surfing will reach a standstill. This has already taken place at numerous colleges before Napster and other music or movie file share programs were deemed illegal. Bandwidth was so bogged down on and around campuses that they actually started capping students to prevent them from downloading too much. This was a BIG event at Purdue University in the late 90's early 2000s. Even if you lived off campus in an apartment or house and used a different internet service provider like I did, there were so many college students living in the West Lafayette / Lafayette area that every service provider was seriously hampered.

Sorry, I'm not interested in going through that again. I have no problem thinking outside the box, but only when it makes sense.

**Sonnie** · **01-12-08, 01:52 PM**

Quote:

majorloser wrote:

But you're willing to drive to the store to pick up a rental disc or wait days for it to arrive in the mail?
And these "people" that don't have computers have one of the HD disc formats........

What if you placed your choices in your queue and it downloads to a hard drive ready for you to view when it's done? It would definitely be done before Snail Mail.

Then take into account that prioritizing data feeds and scheduling premium feed times could drop wait?

Think outside the box guys! You are surrounded by sources of bandwidth feed and you ignore them.

This does not change the fact that there are people in rural communities that do not have Internet access and some never will because they don't want it and/or don't even own a computer. They may still own a DVD player and buy or rent a DVD all along. Physical media is going nowhere for a very very long time... the masses will continue to buy it in some physical form.

**majorloser** · **01-12-08, 01:54 PM**

Quote:

Sonnie wrote:

This does not change the fact that there are people in rural communities that do not have Internet access and some never will because they don't want it and/or don't even own a computer. They may still own a DVD player and buy or rent a DVD all along. Physical media is going nowhere for a very very long time... the masses will continue to buy it in some physical form.

And your point is WHAT?
There are more means then just a computer to get bandwidth into a home.

**majorloser** · **01-12-08, 01:58 PM**

OK, let's take it your way. They don't want internet but are willing to go to the store.

A portable device that can be brought to the store and any movie you want can be put on it while you wait. It would take less time than the time it takes to brouse the shelves.

Again, think outside the box. All forms of data storage that is not of a dynamic nature is dated.

**Sonnie** · **01-12-08, 02:09 PM**

Quote:

majorloser wrote:

OK, let's take it your way. They don't want internet but are willing to go to the store.

A portable device that can be brought to the store and any movie you want can be put on it while you wait. It would take less time than the time it takes to brouse the shelves.

Again, think outside the box. All forms of data storage that is not of a dynamic nature is dated.

That's inside the box...

If they go to the store with something in their hand that contains media, it no longer is the issue you are tying to make of physical media being phased out because of downloads. You are presenting an entirely different scenario now. It's still physical media and your original statement that "downloadable formats will eventually win" would no longer be accurate.

**majorloser** · **01-12-08, 02:17 PM**

Quote:

Sonnie wrote:

That's inside the box...

If they go to the store with something in their hand that contains media, it no longer is the issue you are tying to make of physical media being phased out because of downloads. You are presenting an entirely different scenario now. It's still physical media and your original statement that "downloadable formats will eventually win" would no longer be accurate.

No, that is still a downloaded format!
Somebody else is just doing the download.
It's just a point that since you bring up that some poeple are just slow to adapt that there are still way of achieving media purchase without a removable disc.

I'll bet these same people who don't own a computer and don't have internet access but live in rural areas have a cell phone? Most people that live in rural areas have cell phone for emergencies.

That same cell technology is a form of bandwidth that has entered the home. What if the same cell phone had an HDMI connection. You pick a list of movies you want to watch and it downloads them in the free time. Lets you know when it's done. Plug into your set and BINGO!

**tonyvdb** · **01-12-08, 02:21 PM**

We already have a way to get movies in HD all you need is PPV HD PVR and you can watch many movies that are available although the audio is only DD5.1 this may change.
As far as a real download there are some new ways of getting this but once they are popular they will be as slow as Broadband is now because people will be downloading these huge 50gb files all the time.

**majorloser** · **01-12-08, 02:22 PM**

Quote:

Sonnie wrote:

That's inside the box...

If they go to the store with something in their hand that contains media, it no longer is the issue you are tying to make of physical media being phased out because of downloads. You are presenting an entirely different scenario now. It's still physical media and your original statement that "downloadable formats will eventually win" would no longer be accurate.

In a few months these same people that you are talking about will have to adapt. The will have to obtain a set-top box to get their digital programming.

Take a look at the latest offerings from companies like Echostar.

With the $40 coupon offer from the government, there is now a unique opportunity to move the public in new directions. Offer something that will give them their digital off-air broadcasts plus give the device expansion capability.

**Sonnie** · **01-12-08, 02:25 PM**

Quote:

I'll bet these same people who don't own a computer and don't have internet access but live in rural areas have a cell phone? Most people that live in rural areas have cell phone for emergencies.

That same cell technology is a form of bandwidth that has entered the home. What if the same cell phone had an HDMI connection. You pick a list of movies you want to watch and it downloads them in the free time. Lets you know when it's done. Plug into your set and BINGO!

Those are all very good possibilities, but we'll just disagree on how quick they will become reality and how quick the "masses" will adopt to them.

I also believe physical media in some form will be around long after I and those I know are gone.

**majorloser** · **01-12-08, 02:25 PM**

Quote:

tonyvdb wrote:

We already have a way to get movies in HD all you need is PPV HD PVR and you can watch many movies that are available although the audio is only DD5.1 this may change.
As far as a real download there are some new ways of getting this but once they are popular they will

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