Analysts predict declining DVD sales in 2007

[HDBeat]

Filed under: Industry, Blu-ray, HD DVD
Although HDTVs were atop nearly everyone's holiday wish list, it seems that folks aren't splurging as much on their now-stagnant DVD collection as in years past, which could be an "early warning sign" for 2007. According to a recent report by Pali Research analysts Richard Greenfield and Mark Smaldon, next year could be the first year in consumer spending history that DVD sales actually decline. The report is based on Best Buy / Circuit City's relatively sluggish 2006 disc sales, and when you consider the sagging record sales on the music front, the scenario isn't too hard to fathom. Although there's no pinpointed reason why folks aren't divulging quite as much disposable income on DVDs, some analysts suggest that the onset of internet movie downloads and films on demand are cutting into actual disc sales -- something Comcast (and other providers) could have a hand in. Notably, folks are bearish when speculating about the HD DVD and Blu-ray impact, as they say that high definition films won't sell enough to put a dent in the expected downturn, which could bleed all the way into 2008.
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[Sonnie]

Seems like mine skyrocketed in 2006, mainly due to HD-DVDs, but unless there are a lot of new HD-DVDs out in 2007, it will be down for me as well.

[Deane Johnson]

I think one thing that has happened is that most of the big selling catalog titles have been released several times. Newly released theatrical movies with much excitement in the past year have been rather scarce. There just isn't much to buy.

I have about 1700 SD titles in my library now, but I have essentially stopped purchasing DVD. I'm waiting for a sign as to which HD format is going to dominate, then I'll start buying again, but in high def. I purchase around 12 to 15 movies a month, so if there are very many people like me, they need to ramp up HD in one format or the other to get some of us spending again.

Meantime, I'm really enjoying rewatching the old titles for two reasons. I have a new Panasonic AE900U projector which is awesome, and I have my sub re-equalized following the excellent guidance of this forum (with a room curve). It's exciting all over again.