How long do you think Blu-ray will last? - Home Theater Forum and Systems -

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post #1 of 17 Old 02-23-08, 04:11 PM Thread Starter
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How long do you think Blu-ray will last?

Do you think it was worth the fight with hd dvd or are both going to be obsolete soon? With companies like toshiba wanting to go no disk at all there is a good chance it wont last as long as formats like dvd. Personally I am about to buy a ps3 for games so I hope blue ray lasts.

I dont think digital downloads will be that huge as soon as people think. I think blue-ray will last for at least oh say 5 years .

Blu-ray could still lose HD video war: Toshiba

By Matthew Henry

SYDNEY: Toshiba claims that Sony’s victory in the high definition disc format war will be short lived due to the rise of HD digital video downloads over broadband, which the company claims was one of the key reason for abandoning HD DVD.

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post #2 of 17 Old 02-23-08, 04:26 PM
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Re: How long do you think Blue-ray will last?

I can tell you now that its going to be some time (as long as 10 years) before you will see any sort of HD format on flash ram or whatever they choose to call it. The cost alone makes it unrealistic to even think that it will be a viable media format any time soon for movies. SD cards are up to 16gb and the cost is substantial just for the card never mind placing a movie on it, Nobody is going to pay $60 for a single movie on an SD card.
BluRay is not much different than the standard DVD in the way it is stamped and is a proven reliable cost effective format and at more than 50gb of space just on a single layer there is no reason to think its going away anytime soon.

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post #3 of 17 Old 02-23-08, 04:45 PM
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Re: How long do you think Blue-ray will last?

tonyvdb wrote: View Post
BluRay is not much different than the standard DVD in the way it is stamped and is a proven reliable cost effective format and at more than 50gb of space just on a single layer there is no reason to think its going away anytime soon.
BTW its 25gb per layer.the 50s are dual layer.
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post #4 of 17 Old 02-24-08, 02:01 AM
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Re: How long do you think Blu-ray will last?

Instead of wondering how long it will last, I wonder if it will ever take off. As long as regular dvd is a viable alternative, blue ray discs will always be priced at a premium, and I doubt I am in the minority when I refuse to pay $30 for one movie.
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post #5 of 17 Old 02-24-08, 06:12 AM
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Re: How long do you think Blu-ray will last?

BD's right now are at a price where SD DVD used to be just 2-3 years ago.
I'd say BD will last just as long as SD DVD.

(i'm talking about the average BD cost of 19 bucks)
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post #6 of 17 Old 02-24-08, 06:48 AM
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Re: How long do you think Blu-ray will last?

I've heard recently that Blue Ray has won the battle with High Def discs and movies. It's like the old days with VHS & Beta tape formats. I think you will be seeing more Blue Ray products and the prices should come down as more people buy them and the R & D is paid down. VHS won their fight over the Beta for the market because Beta refused to allow XXX rated movies to be produced in their format. Fortunantly, this isn't the case with Blue Ray.


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post #7 of 17 Old 02-24-08, 08:26 AM
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Re: How long do you think Blu-ray will last?

Personaly, I think that Blue Ray will not last more than 3-5 years. Standard DVD will survive to Blue Ray because many peoples will not pay 300$ for a DVD Player when the could get a standard player for 50$. Do not forget that many peoples do not see a real difference between Standard DVD with Upconversion and Blue Ray, on their TV set... And how much really care about HD audio ?

So I think that Blue Ray or HD DVD are not the DVD killer. Something else will happen. Something with more impact, something so diffrent form DVD that "all ordinary people" want it.

The war was not between HD DVD and BlueRay, the war is still going and it is now between DVD and BlueRay... DVD will win, on the mass market...
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post #8 of 17 Old 02-24-08, 01:46 PM
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Re: How long do you think Blu-ray will last?

Interesting discussion.

There are lots of factors and variables to consider. Studios have said now that there is one format they do want high def (Bluray) but in order for that to displace SDVD, two things have to happen.
  1. The most important thing is someone has to come out with a sub $100 BD player. Sony should lead the way in my opinion and produce a no frills basic player. It doesn't have to have analog 5.1 out or anything fancy, but it does have to meet all profile specifications.

    I seriously doubt we'll see Sony champion their format now that they won, so that means a third party manufacturer needs to step up and fill the gap. What the format needs are players that anyone, even a person on an extreme budget won't have any problem or question buying. Ideally, they should be looking at within a year all DVD players will be Bluray, and since they also play SDVDs they remain backwards compatible.
  2. Content. Everything has to be released on Bluray. SDVD is going to be around for a very long time, but the studios have to get the BD library up to what's out on SDVD. Then prices of the content... No more $30plus Bluray discs. This is one of the things that killed Laser Disc (not the sole reason, but at an average of $30-$40 a pop for a Laser disc movie, it was too expensive).

If they do those two things, people will mass adopt the format and it will be around as long as SDVD. In fact, if they do it right (like I mentioned, all players are BD players) it won't matter what consumers buy, and then the studios can phase out SDVD altogether.

Unfortunately, I don't see either of those happening, and prices won't be down to SDVD prices with both players and content for another 3-5 years at the earliest. Eventually there will be a format that will replace DVD, whether it is standard def or high def DVD. I tend to lean towards thinking it will be digital memory card media. No moving parts to wear out, and with no moving parts comes less expensive manufacturing costs. The studios really don't care what format their movies are in as long 1 they can't be copied, and 2, everyone buys them in that format.

Also, seeing that VHS is still out there, albeit in very few places and very limited titles, even when the content delivery format changes and DVD is replaced, DVD will be around for another 20 years. If Bluray can gain mass adoption before any new technology comes out, then they will also be around for the same length of time. However if they keep players around $300, and movies like Cars and other highly desirable titles up at $30 or more (in stores I should say, most people don't buy online) I really think Bluray will go the way of Laser disc, and become extinct.

Sony won the High Def war, but that was actually just a major battle. The real war is BD vs SDVD. Ironically, Toshiba is now working on improving and increasing the size of... media cards. So they won the format war for High Def, but unless they follow up on things, ultimately they could lose out to something else.

Actually, it really is inevitable that DVD will be replaced by new technology, but what I am saying is Bluray may not have the same shelf life that SDVD has. I predict that within the next three years we'll have movies on media cards. Within five years the media card players will be at a price anyone will be able to buy them, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them incorporated in existing DVD players (some players already have media card slots already, as well as some TVs).

Really this is the first major format war Sony has won. They should now be working on ensuring it gets to the price that everyone will buy the format, but they have a history of being more expensive. They can be greedy and keep the prices up, or lower prices and make a fortune in the long run by mass sales and people buying units for dens, bedrooms and for their kids to use. If they keep Bluray in the elite stratosphere, it will never gain mass adoption.

Without mass adoption, I give Bluray 5-8 years and SDVD another 20. It is strange though thinking that in 2028 any mechanical media method will be around, but I am sure some people will still have players by then. Unless everyone just stops making DVD players altogether and by that time they are are worn out and broken and have been replaced... Think about it though, if TV manufacturers have media card readers in some models now, and say in three years all TVs have them, there is no need for a player, just put the card in the TV, which has an audio output to the receiver. Eventually, audio will be transmitted wirelessly and there won't even be a need to connect an audio cable... (Here's a George Jetson concept for ya... seeing that it could be a pain to walk up to that wall mounted flat screen to insert a movie card, it slides into the remote and is digitally transmitted to the TV and audio devices- just don't lose the remote! )

Sony needs to really step up now. It's like the saying goes, becareful what you wish for, you just might get it! Now the real hard work begins for them. If they thought HD DVD was tough, SDVD is not going down without a major fight!

If we ever see a $7.50 rack or even a $5.50 bin with just Bluray movies, then I'll say it was mass adopted and will be around as long as SDVD

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post #9 of 17 Old 02-24-08, 04:02 PM
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Re: How long do you think Blu-ray will last?

I don't even know where to start. I guess if a better picture and better sound aren't important to you and all beers taste the same then ignorance is bliss.
post #10 of 17 Old 02-24-08, 05:03 PM
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Re: How long do you think Blu-ray will last?

Thing is, I agree downloadable content (as we know it now) is far inferior than a hard copy High Def content. With media cards, once they hit the 30GB, 50GB, 100GB range and at prices of what a DVD costs now, PQ will be exactly what current High Def disc based content is. No bandwidth restrictions for downloading, no waiting for On Demand to update their play lists...

Of course the ideal scenario will be if download and On Demand has the same PQ and audio quality as what's currently on disc, but I don't see that happening for a very long time. Add into that by human nature we like to pack rat things and have a hard copy.

So I still feel people will want a hard copy, I know I will. Technology will change, that's inevitable and this is what I honestly feel will be what replaces DVD. Some will do On Demand, but videophiles like us will want to own our content so there is a definite market for that. As long as there is a market, there will be people wanting money from that demographic.

I think we are still a very long way away from true HD quality content via download or On Demand.

For Bluray to survive, it has to have mass adoption well before the new technology that replaces DVD comes out... whether that technology is download/On Demand or media cards.

"Make everything as simple as possible, but no simpler." - Albert Einstein

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bluray , long

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